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Welcome

This site exists for one reason: to help you think clearly about Bitcoin.

Not to sell you on it. Not to predict where the price is going. Just to give you the frameworks, context, and tools to make your own informed decision.

Think of this as a thinking companion — built by an investor, for investors.

If You're New to Bitcoin

Start with the big picture. These articles lay the foundation — what money actually is, why Bitcoin emerged, and why it matters now.

• The Three Eras of Money — How money evolved from physical to political to mathematical, and what each transition changed.
• Why Bitcoin, Why Now? — The investment case, the risks, and the rules that make Bitcoin holdable through messy cycles.
• Is This Capitalism? — When asset prices are shaped by decisions made behind closed doors, what system are we actually operating in?

If You're Considering Investing

Once the conceptual foundation is in place, these articles address the practical questions: how much, how to hold it, and what to expect along the way.

• Finding the Right Bitcoin Allocation — A framework for determining what percentage of your portfolio belongs in Bitcoin, based on your own risk profile.
• Volatility Is the Admission Fee, Not a Punishment — Why Bitcoin's price swings are a feature of its return profile, not a flaw — and how to think about them.
• Do NOT Keep Your Bitcoin on Exchanges — The case for self-custody, and why holding your own keys is not optional for serious allocations.

Tools

Two interactive tools for deeper analysis. Use them to pressure-test your own assumptions.

• Bitcoin Temperature Index — A composite indicator that shows where we are in the Bitcoin cycle. Derived from on-chain valuation metrics, updated regularly.
• Monte Carlo Price Simulation — Run thousands of simulated price paths to explore the range of possible outcomes over your investment horizon.

Keep Going

Every article on this site is evergreen — written to be useful whether Bitcoin is at $20,000 or $200,000. Take your time.

There is no urgency here. Browse the full archive when you're ready, or bookmark this page and come back to it. The content will hold up.