Bitcoin Is Exactly Where It Was 4 Years Ago
Someone recently said Bitcoin is at exactly the same price as four years ago. They're looking at one number: $69K then, $67K now. Here's what they're missing.
The Spot Price Illusion
Yes, the spot price looks similar. Bitcoin hit $69,000 in November 2021. It trades around $67,000 today.
But judging Bitcoin by spot price alone is like judging a company by its stock price without looking at revenue, margins, or market share. The price is the same. Everything underneath it has changed.
The Structural Floor Tripled
Bitcoin's 4-year moving average is its structural floor. It represents the average price over the last four years of accumulation, adoption, and infrastructure buildout. This floor has never been broken in a sustained way across Bitcoin's entire history.
In November 2021, the floor sat at $19,567.
Today, it sits at $57,593.
That's a 3x increase.
Now look at what that means for the same price point.
In 2021, $69,000 was 3.5x above the structural floor. The Bitcoin Temperature read hot. That price was the ceiling.
In 2026, $67,000 is just 1.16x above the structural floor. The Bitcoin Temperature reads 36 — solidly in the cool zone. That price is the floor.
Same number on the screen. Completely different position in the cycle.
Everything Else Changed
The price stayed flat. The network did not.
| Metric | Nov 2021 | Feb 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Network hashrate | ~170 EH/s | ~1,000 EH/s | +500% |
| Spot Bitcoin ETFs | Did not exist | ~$100B AUM | From zero |
| BTC held by public companies | ~210K BTC | ~1.1M+ BTC | +440% |
| Sovereign BTC reserves | 0 BTC | ~650K+ BTC | From zero |
Public company data: BitcoinTreasuries.NET. Sovereign reserves include US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (~328K BTC), government-seized holdings, El Salvador, and Bhutan.
Every row in that table represents a structural shift. More compute securing the network. Regulated investment products bringing institutional capital. Sovereign nations treating Bitcoin as a reserve asset. None of this existed at $69K in 2021.
The Compression Pattern
When the floor rises dramatically but the spot price stays flat, you're looking at a spring being compressed.
This pattern has appeared in every Bitcoin cycle. The 4-year moving average climbs steadily through the "boring" years. Price consolidates above it. Then the next leg up begins from a foundation that is multiples higher than the previous one.
In 2015, Bitcoin looked dead at $200. The floor was building underneath.
In 2019, Bitcoin looked stalled at $3,500. The floor was building underneath.
Each time, the compression resolved upward.
In previous cycles, the price never stayed flat while the floor rose this much. From the 2013 peak to 2017, Bitcoin was already 17x higher. From the 2017 peak to 2021, it was 3.5x higher. This time, the floor has risen 3x and the price hasn't moved. The spring has never been wound this tight.
What This Means
The people saying "Bitcoin hasn't moved" are reading a single data point. The network hashrate tells a different story. The ETF inflows tell a different story. The sovereign adoption tells a different story. The 4-year moving average tells a different story.
Bitcoin didn't stay still for four years. It built its foundation three times higher. The only thing that hasn't moved is the spot price.
Explore the 4-Year Moving Average: masterclassbitcoin.com/bitcoin-four-year-moving-average
Check the Bitcoin Temperature: masterclassbitcoin.com/bitcoin-temperature
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Bitcoin is a volatile asset. Past performance and historical patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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